One of the most interesting concepts in John Battelle’s The Search is Google as the Database of Intentions as it can capture trends as it happens by analyzing the number of searches made on a topic. There is infinite unexplored potential of this database and Google’s efforts to point to potential flu outbreaks through volume of search offers a fascinating policy level application. However, the Database of Intentions and its consequences have another policy effect.
It would be curious to see the relationship between how fast a search term (thereby an Intention) rises to how fast it falls. Facilitiated by capabilities of the internet, attention spans decreasing while short-term fads seem to be increasing. An analysis of google trends over the years would probably provide some data to support this observation.
Contrast this to another concept we learned in class, the Long Now. Obviously none of us will live to see year 09999 and taking a 20-year or 10,000-year viewpoint seems even more of a contrarian’s manifesto, given the growing hyperactivity fueled by the internet.
Behavioral psychologists have pointed to the Recency Effect, where near-term experience have more influence than earlier or long-term events, as a fundamental bias to decision making. Hyperactivity would likely foster a greater Recency Effect.
To return to the initial statement, this is highly relevant to public policy. Often times, public policy tries to match the incentives between short-term Joe Public and long-term Joe Public. With the rise of Recency Effect and Hyperactivity, it becomes much harder to convince short-term Joe to make decisions for long-term Joe. Complicated long-term issues such as Pension reform are much harder to explain in this attention span environment.
Obviously, the internet has had significantly positive effects throughout the world. For me a key question then is can the internet and the Database of Intentions be used to foster long-term thinking and dialogue? Or are we looking towards increased focus on the short-term in policy making to reflect the thought processes of a hyperactive populace?
